The percentages listed on the create menus is the chance that you will succeed, taking into account tool and material quality, and your skill. However, unlucky streaks can and will happen. Failing ten times in a row with 95% success rate is very bad luck, not a bug. Any items in red cannot be crafted with your current skill level.
The 30 25 [[Quality level|quality]] [[longsword]] you get at the beginning is barely good enough for killing [[Large rat|rat]]s, so you may want to consider creating yourself a new weapon that may be [[improve]]d, or even go for a new [[shield]]. Bows allow you to deal ranged damage without receiving any yourself, [[long bow]]s have such a range that most creatures are unable to see '''or''' attack you.
:'''Read more''': [[Crafting]] | [[Skills]] | [[Improve]] | [[Mining]] | [[Weapons]] | [[Armour]]