User talk:Garynn
Garynn's Universal 'Laws' of Probability.
These aren't so much laws as they are silly guidelines I like to have fun with when attempting many tasks based on probability, such as happens in Wurm a lot. There are two rules:
1) The universe will always attempt to prove you wrong.
2) The universe will attempt to make you waste as much effort as possible.
What do these mean?
Firstly, they mostly apply to middling probabilites. Chances greater than 90% or less than 10% tend to not follow these so-called 'rules.'
The universe will try to prove you wrong in your thinking and your assumptions. If you expect to succeed, you will fail. If you expect to fail, you will succeed. If you want to succeed, but try to bluff by saying "Oh, this is going to fail," the universe will see through your bluff and fail you anyway. There is no way to 'outsmart' the universe, because it sees all and knows all.
The second point I came up with while playing Wurm - the universe wants you to waste effort. Note that this does not particularly mean wasting time, just effort. Also note the use of waste. This does not mean the universe will try to make you expend more effort, just that it will make the most of that effort produce no end and be in vain.
Here's where the distinction comes in handy:
Suppose you are improving an item. When you improve, you have a chance of succesfully improving or of failing and damaging the item. Wurm also allows you to queue a second task after the one you are currently doing. We also know that repairing has no chance of failure, but it just wastes time and a little bit of item quality.
This gives us three stacking options:
Improve-Improve, Improve-Repair, Repair-Improve.
Now, we note that the universe wants us to waste effort. In this case, effort is navigating the menus and clicking on the right option. The universe wants to waste that effort. (I hope you do not consider waiting 10 or 20 seconds as "effort," because Wurm must be intolerable for you if that's the case.)
Improve-Improve: The universe will want your second navigation to improve to be in vain, so the first improve will fail. This means you must navigate the menu a third time in order to select 'repair.' An upside is that the universe may waste your second improve by switching to a different improve item. Because the universe loves wasted effort, this strategy will be quite annoying in the long run, as you also have to pay attention to the event window - more effort!
Repair-Improve. This strategy assumes that the item is damaged from a previous improve attempt. The first repair is always successful, therefore the universe must waste your improve - it will fail! The advantage of this strategy, however, is that it requires minimal attention, except when your improvement item changes.
Improve-Repair. I like to use this - it combines the best of the two words. If you fail, no extra effort is required to make the repair. Therefore, to waste your repair effort, your improve must succeed. Also, by assuming you'll fail, the universe will try to prove you wrong. :-)
However, keep in mind rule 1: The universe will prove you wrong, no matter how many double-bluffs you try to use. :-)
In the end, the best strategy is the one that works for you - maximizing your statistical chance of success while minimizing your effort.
Remember that the universe is not malicious, just mischevious. Remember that it has a sense of humour, so don't let yourself get stressed out.
